Is The X Factor the new Big Brother?

Simon Cowell may be taking it to the US, but there are signs that The X Factor's moment could have passed


Can The X Factor keep its spark with Simon Cowell spreading himself so thinly?

Before I get into what is wrong with The X Factor, I should say that I am a fan, that it is essential weekend viewing for our family, and that it is watercooler TV on a Monday morning for the MediaGuardian team.

The X Factor's stunning success last autumn was a huge factor in resuscitating ITV's reputation, attracting massive audiences and knocking the wheels off the BBC's Strictly juggernaut. Today comes the news that Simon Cowell is to take the show to the US. Cowell will quit American Idol to launch American X Factor on Fox TV. It is important to remember that the two shows are different. Because if you don't, Simon Fuller's lawyers may send you a letter.

But, in the midst of its greatest triumphs, are there signs that The X Factor is also past its best? That like Big Brother, its moment may have passed and that it will be gone before too long?

What evidence is there for this: does the backlash that led to Rage Against The Machine beating The X Factor winner Joe McElderry to the Christmas number one prove anything? Probably not, as that was spearheaded by the anti-The X Factor brigade (always a sizeable group). But it was a moment that may one day mark a turning point, the beginning of the end.

Big Brother's decline and fall seems obvious in retrospect, that it stopped being a zeitgeist show that purported to tell us something about humanity and instead became a freak show for the fame-hungry, with the Jade Goody/Shilpa Shetty race row as the moment it became more socially acceptable to hate rather than love the show.

While X Factor 2009 garnered the biggest ratings, it also became cooler to loathe it. And the quality slumped. There was no Leona Lewis or Alexandra Burke this time around, even though Joe McElderry undoubtedly has a West End career ahead of him. The entertainment value of Jedward could not mask that.

Tinkering with the format has grown the show's legend, but affected its quality. Auditions in front of 3,000 other auditionees made the show seem bigger but added nothing. Its only real success was Jamie "Afro" Archer's Sex On Fire, but mostly it just detracted from the uniqueness of the "live finals".

There is now talk of the live final moving to Wembley Arena. It seems like a great idea, but it might prove overkill. Watching a TV show being made is a substantially different experience to a concert and maintaining the atmosphere among a large crowd during ad breaks and video reminders may be hard to maintain.

The dynamic of the judges has been adversely affected by the move from three to four, not least because an even number of judges means more deadlocks and the cop-out of judges dodging the very reason they are there and throwing the decision to the audience. Simon Cowell and Jedward, anyone?

And speaking of Cowell, can he maintain The X Factor on two continents and also appear in Britain's Got Talent? If he had to, which would he give up? At what point is the Cowell brand spread too thinly? At what point does the public decide it has had enough of him? The noughties belonged to Big Brother and X Factor, but does a new decade demand that we all move on?

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