Strictly Come Dancing is back – with a double dose this weekend of celebrities making total fools of themselves while dressed in sparkly lycra. But who's likely to succeed, and who'll be out in the first weeks? Here are my predictions.

The early exits

I don't hold out much hope for Jo Wood or Lynda Bellingham – older women (as in TV older, ie not in their 30s) haven't done particularly well in recent series; see Stephanie Beacham and Gillian Taylforth as examples .

Sports presenter Chris Hollins is rumoured to be rather ungraceful, and I doubt that he'll have enough of a fan base to keep voting him back every week. Joe Calzaghe's dancing ability has also been criticised in the pre-series whispers, and it's debatable how many Strictly viewers are also boxing fans. Still, if he gets a couple of Latin dances and displays his pecs in the first few weeks, he may well pick up a few floating voters.

The chasing pack

The beautiful Hollyoaks people are out in force this year with Ali Bastian and Ricky Whittle both on the line-up. There is much to be said for aesthetic attractiveness in the Strictly game – after all, it's always nice to see pretty young people in the sequins – but it shouldn't be relied on. Oddly, it can mean the judging panel and audience have raised expectations of you.

While former jockey Richard Dunwoody doesn't seem like a natural dancer, he's partnered with Lilia Kopylova, a woman who will not give up on her partner and will squeeze out any possible drops of artistry if any are available.

Athlete Jade Johnson is this year's token tall girl – expect head judge Len Goodman to wait approximately five seconds before informing us all that it is very difficult for tall people to dance well because they have longer limbs to keep under control. She gets partnered with Ian Waite, who has worked wonders with similarly height-advantaged females, such as Jodie Kidd and Zoe Ball.

Worryingly, I can see former England cricketer Phil Tufnell doing rather well; there's simply no depths to which he won't plunge for a laugh, and he's the candidate most likely to be this year's John Sergeant, revelling in his ineptitude, hamming it up for comedy effect, and gaining lots of votes in the process.

The favourites

Never underestimate the power of the EastEnders block vote. Alumni Ricky Groves (Garry Hobbs) and Natalie Cassidy (who played Sonia Fowler) look set to benefit this year, as Louisa Lytton and Letitia Dean did before them.

Craig Kelly will also be one to watch; he's billed as a Coronation Street actor, but a whole other demographic will be cheering him on – those of us who had our formative years shaped by Queer As Folk. This cross-audience appeal may stand him in good stead.

Laila Rouass (Footballers' Wives and Primeval) might also be expected to do well – actresses are always told that they should be at an advantage because they can convey a story – but being partnered with housewives' favourite Anton du Beke, who's spent seasons lumbered with awkward celebrities, is a stroke of luck. Providing she's actually reasonably good, she'll go far.

Her Footballers' Wives colleague Zöe Lucker may not, though; I've yet to be convinced that the audience as a whole have warmed to her partner, the slave-driving James Jordan, famous mostly for making Georgina Bouzova cry when he called her fat in series 4, and then sulking after being eliminated early with Gabby Logan in series 5 and Cherie Lunghi in series 6.

Former tennis star Martina Hingis is a wildcard, and possibly one of the most surprising celebrities ever to be announced as a Strictly contestant. Still, she'll be hardworking and ultra-competitive; if she can keep her desire to win hidden or at least muted, she should do well.

But in terms of a winner, I can't look much further than Rav Wilding, of Crimewatch and The One Show. Expect VTs about his previous career as a police officer, and possibly law-and-order-related choreography. More to the point, expect very tight trousers, some mind-boggling hip action, and hot-under-the-collar judges.

So that's what I think will happen – but then again, I've not seen any of them dance yet. Join me at 8.30pm on Friday as we watch the first show in the series – and see if any of my predictions are anywhere near the mark.

Guardian Uk

Louisa Lytton was good tho, wasn't she, IMO better than Rachel Stevens with Vinthent!

 From tonights show

given that the eastenders contestants are alumni, one might hope that the fact they are off screen could mean they are judged on their true ability rather than their current profile...out of sight out of mind. I do think that Rav the peoples do-gooding champion (c'mon everyone loves crimewatch lol) and the sports brekkie presenter (Cris..?) will have a following, as may well the eye candy Calvin from Hollyoaks. Its good that this year they have a fair representation from all terrestrial channels though and of course no GMTV household fave lol..or is there?

The people's champion, based on what i saw last night may well be joe calzaghe. Not seen Phil "tuffers" dance solo yet..but again, he faired well in the itv jungle in years gone by so i think the public may well warm to his personality, and forgive any dance faux pas..time will tell.

but however it pans out, i do think that the contestants are a good and diverse bunch. x

haha not Tony!!! no way!!! Ricky Whittle for me seems to be the one to beat at this early stage

In terms of dance etc.. I think Kristina has a tougher job with Joe , than with John Sergent. I don't think his rhythm will kick in , in  time.

I think it depend on the celebs to be honest for that reason Ali needs to watch it remember Emma Bunton and Zoe Ball who never made last two!!! think its just to early to tell at the moment some may go on a journey  and as Tony cant dance latin he cant teach it therefore Laila wont be able to drag him there and from now on its ballroom or latin and when its latin they will be in a dodgy place